Russell Wilson’s TD to Courtland Sutton a historically improbable completion

Midway through the second quarter of Monday night’s game between the Denver Broncos and the Buffalo Bills, Sean Payton and the Broncos offense faced a decision. Looking at a 4th and 2 from the Buffalo seven-yard line, Payton kept his offense on the field — after trying to draw the Bills defense offsides and then burning a timeout — and put the next play in Russell Wilson’s hands.

That faith was rewarded with statistically the most improbable touchdown completion in recent memory.

The Broncos dialed up a play-action design, but the play was blown up almost instantly with pressure from Shaq Lawson. Wilson was forced to improvise, dancing away from pressure before lofting a throw to the back of the end zone that somehow, some way, Courtland Sutton caught:

The play was initially ruled incomplete, but after a review, it was confirmed as a touchdown.

And the connection is worth every imaginable replay angle:

The end zone angle in particular is incredible:

Somehow Sutton is able to get both feet down, completing this play for an improbable touchdown.

How improbable? According to the minds over at Next Gen Stats, the expected completion percentage on this throw was just 3.2%, making it the “most improbable completion of the Next Gen Stats era:”

That’s how improbable.

Interestingly enough, Wilson broke his own record, which came back during the 2019 season when he connected with Tyler Lockett on this touchdown.

That connection had a probability of just 5.3%:

There’s something about Wilson and the back-left corner of the end zone.